{
  "updatedAt": "2026-07-20",
  "title": "AI Coding Subscription API-Equivalent Value",
  "methodology": "API-equivalent value = estimated cost of the same token usage if billed at public API list prices. SemiAnalysis (June 2026) bought each Anthropic/OpenAI plan, ran long-horizon coding tasks until weekly limits, and priced tokens at API rates — those rows are high-confidence ceilings at full utilization. Cursor and Copilot are near pass-through credit products (~1–2× sticker). SuperGrok/Grok and some Gemini rows are reverse-engineered or aggregator estimates (lower confidence). Most users burn far less than ceilings.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "semianalysis",
      "name": "SemiAnalysis",
      "url": "https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2064815044085318040",
      "note": "Purchased each Anthropic/OpenAI plan; ran coding tasks until weekly limits; valued tokens at API rates."
    },
    {
      "id": "semianalysis-summary",
      "name": "SemiAnalysis summary (Vaibhav Sisinty)",
      "url": "https://x.com/VaibhavSisinty/status/2065048691791290691",
      "note": "Widely circulated table: Claude $400/$2k/$8k · ChatGPT $700/$3.5k/$14k."
    },
    {
      "id": "techmeme",
      "name": "Techmeme",
      "url": "https://www.facebook.com/Techmeme/posts/analysis-assuming-api-pricing-the-200month-claude-max-and-chatgpt-pro-plans-offe/1444195594409417/",
      "note": "ChatGPT Pro ~$14k, Claude Max 20x ~$8k API-equivalent."
    },
    {
      "id": "xai-faq",
      "name": "xAI Grok FAQ",
      "url": "https://docs.x.ai/grok/faq",
      "note": "Weekly shared pool; no official dollar size; Extra Usage at standard rates."
    },
    {
      "id": "xai-pricing",
      "name": "xAI API pricing (grok-4.5)",
      "url": "https://docs.x.ai/developers/models/grok-4.5",
      "note": "$2/$0.30/$6 per 1M short context."
    },
    {
      "id": "hermes-reddit",
      "name": "r/hermesagent SuperGrok reverse-engineer",
      "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/hermesagent/comments/1utiwr7/super_grok_and_hermes/",
      "note": "Low-end SuperGrok weekly pool estimate from token %."
    },
    {
      "id": "agentplans",
      "name": "agentplans.fyi",
      "url": "https://agentplans.fyi/",
      "note": "Secondary aggregator for Gemini / Cursor / Grok midpoints."
    },
    {
      "id": "github-copilot-billing",
      "name": "GitHub Copilot usage-based billing",
      "url": "https://docs.github.com/copilot/concepts/billing/usage-based-billing-for-individuals",
      "note": "AI credits map near 1:1 to dollar spend."
    },
    {
      "id": "cursor-pricing",
      "name": "Cursor pricing explained",
      "url": "https://www.vantage.sh/blog/cursor-pricing-explained",
      "note": "Included agent usage then overage — pass-through economics."
    }
  ],
  "plans": [
    {
      "id": "claude-pro",
      "provider": "Anthropic",
      "product": "Claude",
      "planName": "Pro",
      "stickerUSD": 20,
      "apiEqUSD": 400,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 400,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 400,
      "multiplier": 20,
      "confidence": "high",
      "sourceId": "semianalysis",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Claude Code, Opus/Sonnet, Projects",
      "notes": "SemiAnalysis ceiling at full weekly utilization on coding tasks."
    },
    {
      "id": "claude-max-5x",
      "provider": "Anthropic",
      "product": "Claude",
      "planName": "Max 5×",
      "stickerUSD": 100,
      "apiEqUSD": 2000,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 2000,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 2000,
      "multiplier": 20,
      "confidence": "high",
      "sourceId": "semianalysis",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "5× Pro usage · Claude Code",
      "notes": "SemiAnalysis ceiling."
    },
    {
      "id": "claude-max-20x",
      "provider": "Anthropic",
      "product": "Claude",
      "planName": "Max 20×",
      "stickerUSD": 200,
      "apiEqUSD": 8000,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 8000,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 8000,
      "multiplier": 40,
      "confidence": "high",
      "sourceId": "semianalysis",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "20× Pro usage · Claude Code",
      "notes": "SemiAnalysis: up to ~$8,000/mo API-equivalent. Often cited as ~$7,800 revenue opportunity loss for Anthropic at full use."
    },
    {
      "id": "chatgpt-plus",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "product": "ChatGPT / Codex",
      "planName": "Plus",
      "stickerUSD": 20,
      "apiEqUSD": 700,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 700,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 700,
      "multiplier": 35,
      "confidence": "high",
      "sourceId": "semianalysis",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Codex CLI/app (rate-limited), GPT models",
      "notes": "SemiAnalysis ceiling including coding load until weekly limits."
    },
    {
      "id": "chatgpt-pro-5x",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "product": "ChatGPT / Codex",
      "planName": "Pro 5×",
      "stickerUSD": 100,
      "apiEqUSD": 3500,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 3500,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 3500,
      "multiplier": 35,
      "confidence": "high",
      "sourceId": "semianalysis",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Higher Codex / ChatGPT usage windows",
      "notes": "SemiAnalysis ceiling. Common 'Codex $100 plan' power-user tier. CodexBar users often see multi-hundred $ API-eq in days of heavy use."
    },
    {
      "id": "chatgpt-pro-20x",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "product": "ChatGPT / Codex",
      "planName": "Pro 20×",
      "stickerUSD": 200,
      "apiEqUSD": 14000,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 14000,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 14000,
      "multiplier": 70,
      "confidence": "high",
      "sourceId": "semianalysis",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Highest ChatGPT Pro / Codex-class limits",
      "notes": "SemiAnalysis ceiling. Highest measured subsidy in the study (~$13,800 opportunity cost at full use)."
    },
    {
      "id": "supergrok",
      "provider": "xAI",
      "product": "SuperGrok / Grok Build",
      "planName": "SuperGrok",
      "stickerUSD": 30,
      "apiEqUSD": 160,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 10,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 2000,
      "multiplier": 5.3,
      "confidence": "low",
      "sourceId": "hermes-reddit",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Grok Build CLI, shared weekly pool (Chat/Imagine/Voice/Build)",
      "notes": "No official $ pool. Low ~$10/mo reverse-engineer; mid ~$160 aggregators; high $700–2,000 @grok-style framing. Agentic Build often exhausts the week in hours of heavy use."
    },
    {
      "id": "supergrok-heavy",
      "provider": "xAI",
      "product": "SuperGrok / Grok Build",
      "planName": "SuperGrok Heavy",
      "stickerUSD": 300,
      "apiEqUSD": 1600,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 550,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 12000,
      "multiplier": 5.3,
      "confidence": "low",
      "sourceId": "xai-faq",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Highest Grok weekly pool · Grok Build · multi-agent modes",
      "notes": "xAI does not publish pool $. Midpoint ~$1.6k from aggregators; some reverse-engineers claim multi-thousand $/week — unverified. Directional only."
    },
    {
      "id": "google-ai-pro",
      "provider": "Google",
      "product": "Gemini",
      "planName": "AI Pro",
      "stickerUSD": 20,
      "apiEqUSD": 110,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 90,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 150,
      "multiplier": 5.5,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "agentplans",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Gemini app, higher Antigravity / Code Assist vs free",
      "notes": "Not in SemiAnalysis drain study. Community/aggregator midpoint."
    },
    {
      "id": "google-ai-ultra-5x",
      "provider": "Google",
      "product": "Gemini",
      "planName": "AI Ultra 5×",
      "stickerUSD": 100,
      "apiEqUSD": 550,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 450,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 700,
      "multiplier": 5.5,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "agentplans",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "5× vs AI Pro · Antigravity / coding quotas",
      "notes": "Not SemiAnalysis-measured. Aggregator estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "google-ai-ultra-20x",
      "provider": "Google",
      "product": "Gemini",
      "planName": "AI Ultra 20×",
      "stickerUSD": 200,
      "apiEqUSD": 2200,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 1800,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 2800,
      "multiplier": 11,
      "confidence": "low",
      "sourceId": "agentplans",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Top Gemini consumer tier",
      "notes": "Scaled estimate from 5× tier; no public drain experiment."
    },
    {
      "id": "cursor-pro",
      "provider": "Cursor",
      "product": "Cursor",
      "planName": "Pro",
      "stickerUSD": 20,
      "apiEqUSD": 20,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 20,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 280,
      "multiplier": 1,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "cursor-pricing",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "IDE agent · included usage + overage",
      "notes": "Pass-through economics: included agent credits ≈ sticker, then usage-based. High band reflects soft-limit anecdotes, not official policy."
    },
    {
      "id": "cursor-pro-plus",
      "provider": "Cursor",
      "product": "Cursor",
      "planName": "Pro+",
      "stickerUSD": 60,
      "apiEqUSD": 70,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 60,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 90,
      "multiplier": 1.17,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "cursor-pricing",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "~3× Pro agent usage",
      "notes": "Still near 1× economics vs lab flat-rate plans."
    },
    {
      "id": "cursor-ultra",
      "provider": "Cursor",
      "product": "Cursor",
      "planName": "Ultra",
      "stickerUSD": 200,
      "apiEqUSD": 400,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 350,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 450,
      "multiplier": 2,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "agentplans",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Power multi-model agent tier",
      "notes": "Far lower leverage than Claude Max / ChatGPT Pro $200 lab plans."
    },
    {
      "id": "github-copilot-pro",
      "provider": "GitHub",
      "product": "Copilot",
      "planName": "Pro",
      "stickerUSD": 10,
      "apiEqUSD": 15,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 10,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 20,
      "multiplier": 1.5,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "github-copilot-billing",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Completions + chat/agent (plan-dependent)",
      "notes": "AI credits map near 1 credit = $0.01. Near pass-through, not lab subsidy."
    },
    {
      "id": "github-copilot-pro-plus",
      "provider": "GitHub",
      "product": "Copilot",
      "planName": "Pro+",
      "stickerUSD": 39,
      "apiEqUSD": 70,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 60,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 80,
      "multiplier": 1.8,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "github-copilot-billing",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Higher AI credit pool · premium models",
      "notes": "Official credit allotments ≈ $60–80 of model usage."
    },
    {
      "id": "github-copilot-max",
      "provider": "GitHub",
      "product": "Copilot",
      "planName": "Max",
      "stickerUSD": 100,
      "apiEqUSD": 200,
      "apiEqLowUSD": 180,
      "apiEqHighUSD": 220,
      "multiplier": 2,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "sourceId": "github-copilot-billing",
      "codingRelevant": true,
      "includes": "Top individual Copilot credit pool",
      "notes": "Still low leverage vs Anthropic/OpenAI $100 flat-rate coding plans."
    }
  ]
}